Author TechNews | Release Date August 19, 2024 14:03 | Categories xR/AR/VR/MR, Optoelectronics Technology, Panels

According to TrendForce's latest survey, driven by product planning from AR device brand manufacturers and aided by the development of AI and application ecosystems, the shipment scale of AR devices could reach 25.5 million units by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 67% from 2023 to 2030. The penetration rate of LEDoS is gradually increasing, and it could reach 44% by 2030, becoming the mainstream in the market.

TrendForce stated that the popularity of AR devices is increasing year by year. In addition to international brands such as Apple and Meta having relevant product plans, Chinese manufacturer LEDoS has also been quite active. AR devices have strict requirements for optical module size, high environmental light penetration, and display system brightness. The display architecture includes two core systems: the optical engine determines the refresh rate, color, and maximum brightness, while the optical system controls imaging characteristics. Both systems collectively affect key performance indicators of equipment such as pixel per degree (PPD), field of view (FOV), and optical efficiency.

With a market share nearing 44%, LEDoS has surpassed OLEDoS' penetration rate

LEDoS' light source characteristics can meet high brightness, small size, and low power consumption requirements for AR devices, making it an important technological reserve. In the short term, due to the advantages of AR display applications supported by brand merchants, Porotech and Foxconn's collaboration has expanded usage scenarios. However, LEDoS still faces challenges in improving the efficiency of miniaturized LED light emission and achieving full-color display in extremely small spaces. However, as chip stacking and color conversion technologies mature, its penetration rate will continue to increase. TrendForce estimates that LEDoS' market share in AR devices will be 18% this year, reaching 44% by 2030.

From a cost structure, market, and technological maturity analysis, OLEDoS is currently the only technology that can be used for both VR/MR and AR devices. OLEDoS, paired with birdbath, is the solution that best balances cost and display performance. Despite the rapid improvement in resolution, the limitations in balancing brightness and color display for AR applications, along with the impact from LEDoS, will reduce OLEDoS' share in AR devices from 54% in 2024 to 25% in 2030.

AR device brand manufacturers are investing to help LCoS maintain market share.

Compared to LEDoS or OLEDoS, LCoS has high resolution and high brightness characteristics, with advantages in production yield and cost. One disadvantage is that the polarization beam splitter architecture limits further size reduction of the optical system, leading to a long-term threat of being gradually replaced by mature LEDoS in the high-end market. However, with technological development and investment from Meta and other brands, LCoS can maintain a certain market share in AR devices. TrendForce estimates that LCoS' market share will increase from 12% this year to approximately 18% by 2030.

TrendForce stated that LBS laser light sources have fast response times, but their update rate and resolution are still limited by the continuous display of the speed grid scan, with a market share expected to be maintained at 10-12% from this year to 2030. DLP still faces considerable challenges in meeting AR's high-resolution requirements, and lack of driving force from brand merchants will reduce its market share in AR devices to 1% by 2030.

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